Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato Prediction
· Estadio de Chacarita Juniors
Match prediction
- The model's 45% draw and 45% Patronato split makes the double chance coherent, since Chacarita's 10% home win probability is the clear outlier.
- Patronato's superior form and defensive scores align with the away lean, though Chacarita's stronger Poisson rating introduces a conflicting signal.
- Both attacks rate identically at 50, so the edge rests on Patronato's defence and Chacarita's poor away form rather than scoring superiority.
- Every match for both sides stayed under 3.5 goals, directly supporting the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
- Patronato's recent run of three clean sheets in five suggests a low-scoring away performance, reinforcing the under side.
- Head-to-head heavily favours Patronato, but Chacarita's 2024 home win shows the venue can still produce a narrow home result.
- Predicted winner
- Patronato
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Patronato and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Chacarita Juniors | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Poisson | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| H2h | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Goals | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| Total | 36.3% | 63.7% |
Team form and goal analysis
Chacarita Juniors
Recent form: DWLLLLDWLWDWLWLLLDWDLWLLDLLLLWL.
Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.
Patronato
Recent form: DLDLWLLWDDWDWLDDDDLDLDDLDWLDDDW.
Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Patronato 2–0 Chacarita Juniors (17 May 2026)
- Chacarita Juniors 1–0 Patronato (28 Sep 2024)
- Patronato 2–0 Chacarita Juniors (12 May 2024)
- Patronato 3–0 Chacarita Juniors (19 Feb 2018)
- Patronato 6–2 Chacarita Juniors (11 Oct 2015)