Ceuta II vs Tomares Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Ceuta II a 45% home win probability and Tomares only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Ceuta II or draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where form is level at 50.00 for both sides and defence is also identical at 50.00, while Tomares actually hold the higher attack score at 57.00 against Ceuta II's 43.00. The Poisson split of 100.00 to 0.00 and the head-to-head split of 85.00 to 15.00 both lean heavily toward Ceuta II, and the goals comparison of 71.00 to 29.00 and total comparison of 59.80 to 40.20 point the same way, so the model's edge rests more on those historical and goal-based measures than on current form or defence. Both teams arrive with the same DLW sequence from three league games, and both have one win, one draw and one loss, so the recent record offers little separation. Ceuta II's goals analysis shows a 1.00 goals-for average but a 3.00 goals-against average, inflated by a 1-3 home loss to Egabrense, although they kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 away win at Chiclana. Tomares average 1.30 goals for and 1.30 against, with all four of their goals coming at home and none away, and their only away outing was a 0-2 defeat at Linense, which tempers their stronger attack rating. The last-five records reinforce that pattern, as Ceuta II's most recent results include a 1-0 win, a 1-3 loss and a 1-1 draw, while Tomares' include a 2-0 home win over Córdoba II, a 0-2 away loss and a 2-2 home draw. The head-to-head record is the clearest differentiator, with Ceuta II winning 2-1 at home in January 2026 and 2-0 away at Tomares in April 2026, plus a 3-0 home win in September 2024, against two draws and no Tomares win in the six meetings shown. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance rather than a confident home victory, because Ceuta II's head-to-head and goal-based advantages are offset by identical form and defence, Tomares' superior attack metric, and the small three-game sample behind both teams' current numbers.

Predicted winner

Ceuta II

Betting advice

Double chance : Ceuta II or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Tomares 0–2 Ceuta II (19 Apr 2026)
2. Ceuta II 2–1 Tomares (07 Jan 2026)
3. Tomares 2–2 Ceuta II (08 Feb 2025)
4. Ceuta II 3–0 Tomares (28 Sep 2024)
5. Tomares 1–1 Ceuta II (02 Feb 2022)