Celtiga vs Estradense Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Estradense a 45% win probability and Celtiga only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the double-chance advice on draw or Estradense reflects a clear but not overwhelming lean toward the visitors. That lean is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Estradense leads form 80 to 20, attack 63 to 38, and Poisson 100 to 0, while the head-to-head and goals splits sit level at 50-50 and the overall totals favour Estradense 59.6 to 40.6. Celtiga's team analysis shows a DLL form with no wins in three matches, one draw and two defeats, no clean sheets, and a failure to score in one game, which helps explain why the model rates their attacking and defensive scores below Estradense's. Estradense's LDW record is only marginally better in raw results, with one win, one draw and one loss, but their 3-1 home win over Coruña and a 100% penalty conversion rate suggest a sharper attacking edge than the form string alone implies. The goals analysis supports that edge: Estradense average 1.70 goals for and 1.70 against, while Celtiga average 1.00 for and 2.00 against, and Celtiga's defensive record includes 2.00 goals conceded per game with no clean sheets. Celtiga's last five are especially discouraging, featuring four defeats and one draw, including a 0-2 home loss to Boiro and a 2-3 away defeat to Villalbés, so their recent sample points to persistent defensive leakage. Estradense's last five are mixed, with a 3-1 win, a 1-1 draw, a 1-3 loss, a 0-5 loss to Pontevedra and a 2-2 draw, which shows both scoring potential and vulnerability and qualifies the strength of the away lean. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced at 50-50, with each team winning 2-1 at home in the two meetings, so it neither confirms nor contradicts the model's preference for Estradense. Overall, the probabilities, comparison metrics and Celtiga's poor defensive and form profile jointly support the draw-or-Estradense advice, but Estradense's own inconsistent last five and the level head-to-head and goals splits mean the edge is modest rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Estradense

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Estradense

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Celtiga 2–1 Estradense (18 Feb 2026)
2. Estradense 2–1 Celtiga (21 Sep 2025)