Celta de Vigo II vs Sabadell Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Sabadell avoiding defeat, with a 45% draw and 45% away-win probability against only 10% for Celta de Vigo II, so the double-chance advice reflects a clear but not overwhelming edge. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Sabadell's form score of 63 and defensive score of 67 dwarf Celta's 38 and 33, even though the attack scores are identical at 50. The Poisson column is the sharpest internal conflict, showing 100 for Celta and 0 for Sabadell, which sits awkwardly against the probabilities and suggests the model's components are not fully aligned. Celta's six-match record of two wins, one draw and three losses includes heavy home defeats such as 0-4 to Eibar and a 0-2 loss at Almeria, and their 2.70 goals conceded per home game explains why their defensive rating is so low. Sabadell's record of three wins, two draws and one loss is more stable, yet all three wins came at home while their away form produced two draws and a loss, which qualifies the away-win probability. Sabadell's goals analysis shows 2.30 scored per home game but 0.00 per away game, and they failed to score in all three away fixtures, a pattern that makes a draw more plausible than an away victory. Celta's goals analysis shows 1.70 scored and 2.70 conceded at home, with 71.43% of their goals arriving after the 76th minute, hinting at late volatility rather than sustained control. The head-to-head record is split 50-50 across two meetings, with Sabadell winning 2-1 at home and Celta winning 4-2 at home, so it offers no decisive separation and is too small a sample to weight heavily. The last-five records echo the same tension: Celta have two wins and three losses with a 4-2 home win over FC Andorra, while Sabadell have three wins, one loss and one fewer listed match, including a 3-1 home win over Oviedo and a 0-2 away defeat at Mallorca. Overall, the form, defensive and goals evidence supports the draw-or-Sabadell advice, but Sabadell's scoreless away record and the contradictory Poisson split mean the prediction should be treated as plausible rather than secure.

Predicted winner

Sabadell

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Sabadell

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Sabadell 2–1 Celta de Vigo II (21 Jan 2024)
2. Celta de Vigo II 4–2 Sabadell (28 Oct 2023)