Ceares vs San Martín Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home win and 45% draw probabilities show Ceares is favoured only jointly, so the advice carries real draw risk rather than clear superiority.
• Ceares' superior form, attack, and Poisson metrics support the home lean, but identical 50% defence scores and San Martín's 60% head-to-head edge qualify it.
• Both teams have conceded in every match and neither keeps clean sheets, so the draw probability reflects genuine defensive fragility on both sides.
• San Martín's 0.80 goals per game and two scoreless losses suggest limited away threat, yet their head-to-head record warns against dismissing them.
• Ceares' 2.50 home goals per game contrasts sharply with San Martín's 0.50 away average, strengthening the case for a home result.
• Late goals dominate both teams' concessions, so a tight match could shift after the 75th minute despite Ceares' overall statistical edge.

Predicted winner

Ceares

Betting advice

Winner : Ceares

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ceares 0–1 San Martín (03 Apr 2026)
2. San Martín 2–1 Ceares (23 Nov 2025)
3. Ceares 2–0 San Martín (19 Jan 2025)
4. San Martín 0–2 Ceares (08 Sep 2024)
5. Ceares 1–4 San Martín (02 May 2021)