Ceara vs Criciuma Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify double chance, though Criciuma's superior table position and defensive record make that safety net essential.
• Ceara's strong head-to-head and home goal metrics support the pick, but their inferior overall form and league standing relative to Criciuma temper confidence.
• Criciuma's 14 clean sheets and 0.90 goals-against average suggest a low-scoring affair, aligning with the draw probability and reinforcing the cautious double chance.
• Both attacks average just 1.10 goals per game, so the near-even win and draw probabilities reflect genuine attacking limitations rather than a decisive home edge.
• Criciuma's recent three losses in five contrast with Ceara's steadier run, yet the visitors' superior season-long consistency keeps the away probability from being negligible.
• The Poisson split slightly favors Criciuma while most other comparison metrics favor Ceara, explaining why the model hedges with draw coverage rather than backing a home win.

Predicted winner

Ceara

Betting advice

Double chance : Ceara or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Criciuma 1–1 Ceara (16 Jun 2026)
2. Ceara 1–0 Criciuma (02 Sep 2023)
3. Criciuma 1–2 Ceara (21 May 2023)
4. Criciuma 1–1 Ceara (18 Nov 2017)
5. Ceara 3–1 Criciuma (02 Aug 2017)