Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ vs Aerostar Bacau Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Aerostar Bacau with a draw-or-away double chance and an under 3.5 goals line, reflecting probabilities of 45% draw, 45% away and only 10% home, so the advice is essentially a bet against a Ceahlăul win rather than a strong endorsement of the visitors. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Aerostar dominate form (86 versus 14) and attack (83 versus 17), yet the head-to-head and goals splits sit level at 50-50, and the Poisson column is an extreme 100-0 in Ceahlăul's favour, a conflict that suggests the model's inputs are not fully aligned. Ceahlăul's own record is bleak: a form line of LLLDL with no wins in five, no clean sheets, four failures to score, and heavy defeats of 0-4 at home and 5-0 away, leaving them with just one goal scored across five matches. Aerostar's LWLWL is more competitive but heavily venue-dependent, since both wins and all five of their goals came at home, while all three away games were lost with no goals scored and three failures to score on the road. The goals analysis reinforces the low-scoring expectation, as Ceahlăul average 0.20 goals for and 2.40 against, and Aerostar average 1.00 for and 1.60 against, with neither side keeping a clean sheet and both conceding in every match. The last-five records show Ceahlăul scoring only once in five outings, while Aerostar's two wins came by 3-1 and 2-1 at home against Bradul Putna and Gheorgheni, with their three away defeats producing just one goal conceded in one case but three in another. The head-to-head is a small and dated sample of two cup meetings, a 3-0 Ceahlăul home win in 2020 and a 4-1 Aerostar away win in 2018, which explains the even 50-50 split but offers little reliable guidance for a 2026 league fixture. Taken together, the evidence supports the double chance mainly because Ceahlăul look incapable of winning, while the under 3.5 line is consistent with both teams' low scoring and Aerostar's away blank, though the away side's poor travelling form means the draw half of the advice may carry more weight than the away win.

Predicted winner

Aerostar Bacau

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Aerostar Bacau and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3–0 Aerostar Bacau (07 Oct 2020)
2. Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1–4 Aerostar Bacau (29 Aug 2018)