CD Guadalajara vs Unión Tarija Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives CD Guadalajara only a 10% chance of winning, with the draw and Uni\u00f3n Tarija each at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Uni\u00f3n Tarija rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Uni\u00f3n Tarija leads on form (75 versus 25), attack (64 versus 36), defence (60 versus 40), head-to-head (67 versus 33), goals (63 versus 38) and the overall total (60 versus 40.2), leaving the Poisson estimate as the lone dissenting signal at 69 for Guadalajara against 31 for Tarija. The team analysis helps explain that conflict, since Guadalajara's five-match record of two draws and three defeats (LDLDL) includes no wins at all, while Tarija's WLLWL shows two victories but also three losses and no draws. Guadalajara's goal profile is especially thin, averaging just 0.80 goals scored per game and 1.80 conceded, with only three of their five matches seeing them score and none producing more than two goals. Tarija's numbers are more volatile, averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, but their totals are heavily skewed by home form: 2.00 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per home game, against 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded away. That split matters because the last-five records show Tarija winning 4-0 and 2-0 at home but losing 0-2 and 1-3 on the road, while Guadalajara's recent outings were two 1-1 and 2-2 draws plus three defeats, including a 0-2 loss at Tarija. The head-to-head record reinforces the away side's edge, with Tarija winning the most recent meeting 2-0 and also prevailing 3-2 away in 2025, although Guadalajara did win 1-0 at home in September 2025, so the sample is small and not unanimous. Overall, the weight of form, goals and head-to-head evidence points toward Tarija avoiding defeat, but their poor away scoring and Guadalajara's habit of drawing keep the draw component of the double chance plausible, and the Poisson split is a reminder that the model's confidence is not uniform across all metrics.

Predicted winner

Unión Tarija

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Unión Tarija

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Unión Tarija 2–0 CD Guadalajara (22 Aug 2026)
2. CD Guadalajara 0–1 Unión Tarija (14 Sep 2025)
3. Unión Tarija 2–3 CD Guadalajara (31 Aug 2025)