Caudal vs L'Entregu Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours Caudal with a double chance of win or draw, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for an L'Entregu victory, so the advice rests on a combined 90% covering the two non-away outcomes. That framing is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Caudal leads on form (67 versus 33), attack (71 versus 29), head-to-head (85 versus 15), goals (89 versus 11) and overall total (71.2 versus 28.8), while L'Entregu's only edge comes in defence (56 versus 44). The Poisson split, however, is a stark outlier at 0 for Caudal and 100 for L'Entregu, which directly contradicts the rest of the model and suggests the probabilities should be treated as a soft lean rather than a firm conclusion. Caudal's three league games produced two wins and one loss, including a 0-3 away win at Astur and a 2-1 home win over Ceares, but also a heavy 4-0 defeat at Covadonga that shows the defensive vulnerability implied by their lower defensive score. L'Entregu's record is the mirror image in results terms, with one win and two defeats, and their goal profile is notably thin: just two goals scored across three matches at 0.70 per game, with both goals arriving between the 31st and 60th minute. Caudal's attacking output is more substantial at 1.70 goals per game, spread across the opening and closing quarters, though their concession of three of five goals in the 46-60 window points to a recurring post-half-time lapse. The head-to-head record over ten meetings leans Caudal's way with four wins to L'Entregu's three and three draws, and the recent pattern is mixed: Caudal won 1-0 at home in February 2026 and 4-0 in December 2024, while L'Entregu won 2-1 at home in March 2023 and Caudal took a 3-1 away win in April 2025. The last-five samples are small and partly stale, with Caudal's most recent outing a 4-0 loss and L'Entregu's a 1-3 home defeat, so neither side enters in convincing form and the draw component of the advice looks well supported by the three drawn head-to-head meetings. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance lean toward Caudal primarily through form, attack and historical dominance, but the contradictory Poisson output, L'Entregu's superior defensive metric and the modest three-game samples mean the prediction should be read as a cautious directional view rather than a confident one.

Predicted winner

Caudal

Betting advice

Double chance : Caudal or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Caudal 1–0 L'Entregu (08 Feb 2026)
2. L'Entregu 0–0 Caudal (28 Sep 2025)
3. L'Entregu 1–3 Caudal (17 Apr 2025)
4. Caudal 4–0 L'Entregu (06 Dec 2024)
5. L'Entregu 0–0 Caudal (23 Mar 2024)