Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs Tropezón Prediction
Match prediction
- Tropezón's perfect four-win start, including two away victories, justifies the model's 50% away probability and the double-chance advice.
- Castro's two draws and two losses in four matches, with only one win, explain why the model assigns no home win probability.
- Tropezón's defensive record of two clean sheets and just two goals conceded strengthens the case for avoiding a Castro victory.
- Castro's attack has scored only four goals across four games, supporting the model's confidence in Tropezón not losing.
- The head-to-head record heavily favors Tropezón, though Castro's home win in 2024 shows the fixture is not entirely one-sided.
- Tropezón's goals cluster late, with three of nine scored after 76 minutes, suggesting Castro could remain competitive for long stretches.
- Predicted winner
- Tropezón
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Tropezón
- Home win probability
- 0%
- Draw probability
- 50%
- Away win probability
- 50%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Castro | Tropezón |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Attack | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Defence | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Poisson | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Goals | 10.0% | 90.0% |
| Total | 27.6% | 72.4% |
Team form and goal analysis
Castro
Recent form: DWDL.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Tropezón
Recent form: WWWW.
Average goals scored: 2.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Castro 0–2 Tropezón (09 May 2026)
- Tropezón 3–1 Castro (11 Jan 2026)
- Tropezón 2–0 Castro (24 May 2025)
- Castro 0–1 Tropezón (18 May 2025)
- Tropezón 1–0 Castro (19 Jan 2025)