Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction
· Estadio Municipal de Castalia
Match prediction
- Castellón's perfect seven-match record with five clean sheets anchors the home win, though the model's 45% draw probability signals the result is far from certain.
- Ceuta's five defeats in seven, including heavy away losses, explain their low 10% win probability and support the home side.
- Castellón's attack and defence ratings dwarf Ceuta's, yet the model splits home and draw evenly, implying the value lies in the goals market rather than the outright result.
- Castellón's goals-for distribution shows five of seven matches exceeding 1.5 goals, directly supporting the +1.5 component of the combo advice.
- Ceuta's defence concedes 2.4 goals per game on average, reinforcing that the +1.5 goals leg is the more reliable half of the combination.
- Head-to-head history shows three draws in four meetings, a cautionary signal that tempers confidence in the home win despite Castellón's superior form.
- Predicted winner
- Castellón
- Betting advice
- Combo Winner : Castellón and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Castellón | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| Attack | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| Defence | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| Poisson | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Goals | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Total | 71.4% | 28.6% |
Team form and goal analysis
Castellón
Recent form: WDWWWWW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
AD Ceuta FC
Recent form: LLLLLDW.
Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.
Head-to-head record
- AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Castellón (09 May 2026)
- Castellón 3–3 AD Ceuta FC (14 Sep 2025)
- Castellón 2–2 AD Ceuta FC (11 Feb 2024)
- AD Ceuta FC 1–3 Castellón (15 Oct 2023)