Casalarreina vs Agoncillo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Agoncillo with a draw-or-away double chance, expressed as 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for a Casalarreina win, so the advice is essentially a bet against the home side rather than a strong call on Agoncillo. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where Agoncillo dominates attack (71 vs 29), goals (75 vs 25), head-to-head (85 vs 15), Poisson (100 vs 0) and overall totals (62.6 vs 37.4), while Casalarreina's only edge is form at 60 versus 40 and a milder defensive advantage at 58 versus 42. The form edge, however, is thin and recent: Casalarreina's WLL includes a 0-3 home loss to La Calzada and a 0-1 defeat at Oyonesa, with their lone win a 2-1 trip to Pradejón, so their 60 form score rests on a single result. Agoncillo's DDL is equally modest but less damaging, with 1-1 draws against Anguiano away and Haro Deportivo at home before a 3-5 home loss to Calahorra, meaning they have avoided defeat in two of three and have not failed to score in any of those games. The goals analysis sharpens this: Casalarreina have scored just twice in three matches (0.70 per game) and conceded five (1.70), while Agoncillo have scored five (1.70) but conceded seven (2.30), so both defences look leaky and Agoncillo's attacking output is the more reliable differentiator. Agoncillo's concession pattern is heavily front-loaded, with three of seven goals against arriving in the 0-15 window (42.86%), which could give Casalarreina an early opening even if the overall shot profile favours the visitors. The head-to-head record is the strongest single pillar behind the advice, since Agoncillo have won three of the six meetings, including a 4-0 home rout and a 1-0 away win at El Soto, with two draws and only one Casalarreina victory, though those results stretch back to 2021-2025 and involve different squads. The last-five records add a cautionary note: Casalarreina's two wins in that span (2-1 at Pradejón and 1-0 at home to Autol) show they can grind out narrow results, while Agoncillo's sequence includes two defeats and no wins, so the model's confidence in an away win or draw may be overstating current momentum. Overall, the evidence coheres around Agoncillo being the better attacking and historically dominant side, but the small three-match samples, Casalarreina's superior form score and Agoncillo's winless recent run mean the draw-or-away advice looks more defensible than a straight Agoncillo victory.

Predicted winner

Agoncillo

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Agoncillo

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Casalarreina 1–1 Agoncillo (19 Jan 2025)
2. Agoncillo 4–0 Casalarreina (08 Sep 2024)
3. Casalarreina 0–1 Agoncillo (04 Feb 2023)
4. Agoncillo 2–2 Casalarreina (02 Oct 2022)
5. Agoncillo 1–0 Casalarreina (20 Mar 2022)