Carmarthen Town vs Llantwit Major Prediction
· Richmond Park
Match prediction
- The model's 35% home and 35% draw probabilities show Carmarthen are favoured only marginally, so the combo advice carries real risk.
- Carmarthen's superior attack and Poisson ratings contrast with Llantwit Major's head-to-head and goals edge, explaining the compressed win probability.
- Both teams' defensive ratings are identical, yet Carmarthen's recent matches consistently produce goals, supporting the +1.5 component.
- Llantwit Major's away form includes heavy defeats, which strengthens the case for Carmarthen despite the close overall probabilities.
- Head-to-head history leans toward Llantwit Major, a meaningful counterweight that keeps the home win probability from rising higher.
- Carmarthen have scored in every match this season, making the +1.5 goals element of the advice the more reliable half.
- Predicted winner
- Carmarthen Town
- Betting advice
- Combo Winner : Carmarthen Town and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Carmarthen Town | Llantwit Major |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Attack | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| H2h | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Goals | 38.0% | 63.0% |
| Total | 56.0% | 44.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Carmarthen Town
Recent form: WWWLDLDW.
Average goals scored: 2.40 per match.
Llantwit Major
Recent form: LLLLDW.
Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Carmarthen Town 1–1 Llantwit Major (30 Jan 2026)
- Llantwit Major 0–0 Carmarthen Town (16 Aug 2025)
- Llantwit Major 0–2 Carmarthen Town (11 Jan 2025)
- Carmarthen Town 0–1 Llantwit Major (25 Oct 2024)
- Carmarthen Town 0–3 Llantwit Major (20 Apr 2024)