Carina Gubin vs Stilon Gorzów Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Stilon Gorzów as the winner, but its 45% away probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only a 10% home chance, so the advice is better read as a slight preference than a clear edge. The comparison metrics reinforce that split: Stilon leads form 75 to 25, attack 71 to 29, and Poisson 76 to 24, while Carina Gubin's only counterweight is a 62 to 38 head-to-head score that sits awkwardly against the rest of the profile. That head-to-head advantage looks partly backward-looking, because the recent meetings include a 0-0 league draw in May 2025 and a 1-1 friendly in July 2026, even though older fixtures such as Carina's 1-5 home loss in March 2024 and Stilon's 0-3 win in November 2024 show the away side's historical capacity to dominate this matchup. Carina's team analysis explains the weak form reading: one win, two draws and six defeats in nine games, no clean sheets at all, and a scoring rate of just 0.70 goals per game, with four scoreless outings. Stilon's record is less emphatic than the 75 form score suggests, since two wins, four draws and three defeats in nine games is only modestly better, but their 1.60 goals per game and 1.40 conceded per game are clearly superior to Carina's 0.70 and 2.10. The goals analysis adds a venue caveat, because Stilon's away scoring average of 2.30 is offset by an away concession average of 2.30, while Carina concede 2.80 per away game but only 1.60 at home, so the defensive gap may narrow at Stadion Miejski Gubin. The last-five records show neither side arriving in strong shape: Carina have one draw and four defeats with just two goals scored, and Stilon have two draws, two defeats and one win, including a 2-4 loss at Karkonosze Jelenia Góra. The goals totals are level at 50-50, which further qualifies the away lean, and the overall total comparison of 38.70 to 61.30 is the main metric that aligns with the model's preference for Stilon. Taken together, the evidence supports a cautious Stilon edge on form, attack and Poisson, but the equal draw probability, the level goals metric, Stilon's leaky away defence and the recent head-to-head draws mean the prediction should be treated as uncertain rather than a confident away win.

Predicted winner

Stilon Gorzów

Betting advice

Winner : Stilon Gorzów

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Stilon Gorzów 1–1 Carina Gubin (25 Jul 2026)
2. Carina Gubin 0–0 Stilon Gorzów (31 May 2025)
3. Stilon Gorzów 0–3 Carina Gubin (09 Nov 2024)
4. Carina Gubin 1–5 Stilon Gorzów (30 Mar 2024)
5. Stilon Gorzów 0–1 Carina Gubin (02 Sep 2023)