Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Caernarfon Town, giving them a 45% win probability against Cardiff MET's 10%, with the remaining 45% assigned to a draw, and the advice combines a Caernarfon win with over 1.5 goals. That split between away win and draw is worth noting, since the comparison metrics show Caernarfon ahead on form (56 vs 44), attack (65 vs 35), Poisson (73 vs 27) and head-to-head (62 vs 38), while Cardiff MET's only clear edge is defence (56 vs 44). The goals picture reinforces the attacking gap, as Caernarfon average 3.30 goals scored per match against Cardiff MET's 2.10, though both sides concede at a similar overall rate of roughly 1.1 to 1.2 per game. Caernarfon's last five support the stronger form reading, with four wins including a 9-1 home rout of Cambrian & Clydach and a 5-0 away win at Ammanford, the only blemish being a 2-3 home loss to The New Saints. Cardiff MET's recent run is more mixed, with two wins, two draws and a 0-1 away defeat to GAP Connah S Quay, and their season record of four wins, two draws and three losses across nine games is less convincing than Caernarfon's seven wins from ten. The head-to-head record also tilts toward Caernarfon, who won the most recent meeting 4-2 at Cyncoed Campus and have taken several of the last ten encounters, although Cardiff MET did win 4-2 at home in March 2025 and two of the fixtures ended level. One qualification is that Cardiff MET's defensive score is the single metric where they outperform Caernarfon, and their away goals-against average of 0.60 is notably low, which could make the over 1.5 goals element less certain than the win element. The small samples involved, particularly the five-match form windows and the mixed head-to-head results, mean these trends should be treated as indicative rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Caernarfon Town

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Caernarfon Town and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cardiff MET 2–4 Caernarfon Town (13 Dec 2025)
2. Caernarfon Town 0–3 Cardiff MET (28 Sep 2025)
3. Cardiff MET 2–2 Caernarfon Town (09 Aug 2025)
4. Caernarfon Town 0–0 Cardiff MET (11 May 2025)
5. Caernarfon Town 2–1 Cardiff MET (19 Apr 2025)