Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City Prediction
Match prediction
- Newport City's away form is decisive: two wins and a draw on the road, including a 4-0 victory, while Cardiff Draconians have lost three of six overall.
- Cardiff Draconians concede 2.5 goals per home game and kept no home clean sheets, undermining their already slim 10% win probability.
- Newport City's defence allows just 0.3 goals per away match with two away clean sheets, directly supporting the 45% away win probability.
- The head-to-head record favours Newport City, though the split results and Cardiff's home advantage qualify the 100% h2h figure as a small-sample trend.
- Cardiff Draconians score 2.0 goals per home game but failed to score in two away matches, suggesting their threat is venue-dependent.
- The model's 45% draw probability nearly matches the away win, reflecting Newport's low-scoring away profile and Cardiff's home volatility.
- Predicted winner
- Newport City
- Betting advice
- Winner : Newport City
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Cardiff Draconians | Newport City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| Attack | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Defence | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Poisson | 8.0% | 92.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Goals | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Total | 37.6% | 62.4% |
Team form and goal analysis
Cardiff Draconians
Recent form: LDLWWL.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Newport City
Recent form: WLWLLD.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Cardiff Draconians 0–1 Newport City (28 Mar 2026)
- Newport City 2–1 Cardiff Draconians (10 Dec 2025)