Čarda Martjanci vs Videm Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Čarda Martjanci in a combo with over 1.5 goals, but its own probabilities are nearly flat at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the selection rests on a narrow edge rather than clear dominance. That edge is supported by the comparison metrics, where Čarda Martjanci leads on attack (59 versus 41), defence (55 versus 45) and especially Poisson (70 versus 30), yet those same metrics show Videm ahead on head-to-head (80 versus 20) and goals (60 versus 40), with form deadlocked at 50 apiece and the total split almost evenly at 49 to 51. The head-to-head record reinforces that tension, since Videm won the most recent meeting 1-0 at home in March 2026 and the earlier fixture in September 2025 ended 2-2 in Martjanci, giving Videm the historical upper hand even though the current-season numbers favour the hosts. Čarda Martjanci's six-match profile of two wins, two draws and two losses is heavily home-weighted, with both wins and a 7-1 rout of Šmartno coming at home, while their away form shows two draws and a loss without a victory. Videm's seven-match record of two wins, two draws and three losses is similarly mixed, and their last five alternate between resilient draws against Hajdina and Odranci and defeats such as the 3-0 loss at Šmartno, suggesting inconsistency rather than a clear upward trend. The goals analysis tilts toward the over 1.5 component of the advice: Čarda Martjanci average 2.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded, Videm 1.90 scored and 2.40 conceded, and neither side has kept a clean sheet, so both teams scoring in most matches looks plausible. However, the under/over splits qualify how far that scoring extends, as Čarda Martjanci went over 2.5 goals in only two of six matches and Videm in just one of seven, meaning the evidence supports clearing 1.5 goals more strongly than a high-scoring game. The samples are small, with six and seven matches respectively plus only two head-to-head meetings, so the Poisson gap and the home-form pattern should be treated as tendencies rather than reliable separators. On balance, the home attack and Poisson advantages plus the near-certain goal involvement give the Čarda Martjanci and over 1.5 combination a reasonable basis, but the level probabilities, Videm's head-to-head edge and the modest goal ceilings keep the outcome genuinely uncertain.

Predicted winner

Čarda Martjanci

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Čarda Martjanci and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Videm 1–0 Čarda Martjanci (22 Mar 2026)
2. Čarda Martjanci 2–2 Videm (07 Sep 2025)