Cambrian & Clydach vs Llandudno Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Cambrian & Clydach with a double-chance call, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for Llandudno, so the advice effectively treats the away side as a marginal threat rather than a genuine contender. That framing is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Cambrian lead on form (67 vs 33), attack (69 vs 31), Poisson (64 vs 36), goals (60 vs 40) and the aggregate total (59.8 vs 40.2), while the head-to-head split of 100 to 0 reflects a single prior meeting rather than a meaningful pattern. The one clear counterweight is defence, where Llandudno rate higher at 61 against Cambrian's 39, suggesting the home advantage may be built more on scoring potential than on defensive solidity. Cambrian's ten-match record of four wins, three draws and three losses is notably home-resilient, with two wins and two draws from four home fixtures and no home defeats, whereas Llandudno's five wins are heavily concentrated at home (four) against only one away win and four away losses. The goals data sharpen that contrast: Cambrian concede 1.00 per home game versus 2.70 away, while Llandudno score 2.20 at home but just 1.40 away and concede 2.00 on the road, so the venue effect appears to work in the home side's favour. Recent form is more mixed than the headline numbers imply, as Cambrian's last five include a 9-1 away collapse at Caernarfon alongside a 4-0 win at Trefelin and home draws with Cardiff MET and Penybont, while Llandudno's last five show a 2-0 home win over Ammanford but away defeats to The New Saints, Barry Town and Colwyn Bay. Both teams' goal-timing profiles point to late action, with Cambrian scoring 29.41% of their goals in the 76-90 window and Llandudno matching that 27.78% share, and both concede a similar late proportion, which hints at possible late swings without clearly favouring either side. The under-over distributions are also similar, with both teams going under 2.5 goals in eight of ten matches, so the evidence supports a relatively controlled game rather than a high-scoring one. Overall, the home-side bias in the probabilities is supported by form, attack and venue splits, but the defensive metric, Cambrian's heavy away defeat and the small head-to-head sample mean the draw component of the double chance carries real weight rather than being a formality.

Predicted winner

Cambrian & Clydach

Betting advice

Double chance : Cambrian & Clydach or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cambrian & Clydach 3–2 Llandudno (16 Nov 2024)