Calvo Sotelo vs Atlético Tordesillas Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Calvo Sotelo with a double chance at 45% home and 45% draw against only 10% for Atlético Tordesillas, so the advice is essentially a bet against an away win rather than a strong vote for a home victory. That caution is supported by the form comparison, where both sides sit level at 50.00, and by the last-five records, which show Calvo Sotelo on LDL and Atlético Tordesillas on LLD, meaning neither team has won any of its three league fixtures this season. The comparison metrics pull in opposite directions: Atlético Tordesillas dominate attack (86.00 versus 14.00) and Poisson (100.00 versus 0.00), while Calvo Sotelo lead defence (64.00 versus 36.00), goals (67.00 versus 33.00) and head-to-head (100.00 versus 0.00), leaving the total scores nearly level at 48.80 and 51.30. The goals analysis helps reconcile this, since Atlético Tordesillas have scored six goals at 2.00 per game but conceded nine at 3.00 per game, whereas Calvo Sotelo have scored just once at 0.30 per game while conceding five at 1.70, so the away side's attacking edge comes with a far weaker defensive record. Calvo Sotelo's attacking numbers are especially thin: they failed to score in two of three league games, drew 0-0 with Atlético Paso and lost 0-3 at home to Gimnástica Segoviana, with their only goal coming in a 2-1 defeat at Real Ávila. Atlético Tordesillas, by contrast, have scored in every league match, including a 3-4 loss at Albacete II and a 2-2 home draw with Navalcarnero, but they have kept no clean sheets and their heaviest home defeat was 1-3. The head-to-head record is a single 2024 Copa Federación match in which Calvo Sotelo won 2-1 away at Atlético Tordesillas, which explains the 100.00 to 0.00 split but is too small a sample to carry much weight. Overall, the 45% draw probability looks consistent with two winless, low-scoring sides, while the 10% away probability seems to understate Atlético Tordesillas' greater goal threat, so the double chance on Calvo Sotelo or draw appears to rest more on the home side's defensive solidity and the head-to-head result than on any clear attacking superiority.

Predicted winner

Calvo Sotelo

Betting advice

Double chance : Calvo Sotelo or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Atlético Tordesillas 1–2 Calvo Sotelo (25 Sep 2024)