Calamocha vs Tudelano Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Calamocha via a double-chance call, with home win and draw both at 35% against Tudelano's 30%, so the advice reflects a modest edge rather than a clear favourite. That narrow margin is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Tudelano's superior form score (57 versus 43) and much stronger defence rating (67 versus 33) pull against the home side, while the Poisson estimate (64 versus 36) and the overall totals (47.5 versus 52.5) keep the balance close. Attack ratings are identical at 50 apiece, suggesting neither side carries a decisive offensive advantage into this fixture. Calamocha's three-match form line of LLW includes a 3-2 home win over UD Logroñés II but also a 0-1 home loss to Terrassa and a heavy 5-0 away defeat to Espanyol II, leaving them with one win, two losses and no clean sheets. Tudelano's DLW record is marginally steadier, built on a 2-1 home win over Manresa and a 0-0 home draw with UD Logroñés II, though their away form shows a 3-1 loss at Girona II and a 3-0 aggregate scoring split of one goal for and three against on the road. The goals analysis reinforces that contrast: Calamocha have scored three and conceded eight across three games, with a 5.00 away goals-against average, while Tudelano have scored three and conceded four, including a 0.50 home goals-against average and a 100% penalty conversion from one attempt. Both teams have failed to score in two and one matches respectively, and Calamocha's concession pattern is spread across the match (two in the opening 15 minutes, two in the 31-45 window and three in the 76-90 window), which hints at late-game vulnerability. The head-to-head section is empty, so no direct historical record is available to confirm or contradict the model's lean, and the last-five samples for both sides are small and partly stale, with several results dating back to May 2026. Taken together, the evidence supports a cautious double-chance reading rather than a confident home win, because Calamocha's defensive weakness and inferior form are offset by the Poisson edge and the draw-inclusive advice.

Predicted winner

Calamocha

Betting advice

Double chance : Calamocha or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.