Caerau (Ely) vs Afan Lido Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify double chance rather than a straight win, since Afan Lido's 10% away share is the only clearly suppressed outcome.
• Caerau's superior form, attack, and head-to-head scores all favor them, but their leaky defence and Afan Lido's five clean sheets keep a draw plausible.
• Afan Lido's away record of one win and three losses with 2.5 goals conceded per away game supports the low away probability.
• Caerau's recent 3-1 and 3-0 wins show scoring form, yet their 1-5 home loss and 2.3 goals conceded per game expose the defensive risk behind the draw component.
• Head-to-head results are mostly home wins, but the 2024 draw at Afan Lido and narrow 3-2 away scoreline show this fixture can stay close.
• Both teams' goals cluster late, so a tight match could swing on second-half scoring, reinforcing the cautious double-chance advice over a confident home win.

Predicted winner

Caerau (Ely)

Betting advice

Double chance : Caerau (Ely) or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Caerau (Ely) 4–1 Afan Lido (07 Mar 2026)
2. Afan Lido 3–2 Caerau (Ely) (31 Oct 2025)
3. Caerau (Ely) 3–0 Afan Lido (22 Nov 2024)
4. Afan Lido 2–2 Caerau (Ely) (07 Sep 2024)
5. Caerau (Ely) 3–2 Afan Lido (01 Apr 2024)