Cadiz vs Leganes Prediction

Match prediction

• Cadiz's win probability equals the draw at 35%, so the double-chance advice reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a clear home edge.
• Leganes' stronger recent form and superior Poisson rating conflict with Cadiz's head-to-head and goals dominance, explaining why the model avoids backing a Cadiz win outright.
• Cadiz's seven-match winless run, with four draws, supports the draw component of the double chance despite their favourable historical record.
• Both teams' goal data show no match exceeding 3.5 goals, reinforcing the under 3.5 goals element of the advice.
• Leganes' away scoring average of 0.5 goals per game and Cadiz's low home output suggest a tight, low-scoring contest.
• Cadiz's head-to-head and goals superiority at home offsets their poor form, keeping the double chance reasonable while the win probability remains modest.

Predicted winner

Cadiz

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Cadiz or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cadiz 3–0 Leganes (24 May 2026)
2. Leganes 1–1 Cadiz (22 Aug 2025)