World · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Burundi vs Algeria Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's advice of a double chance on Burundi or draw rests on a near-even split (home 35%, draw 35%, away 30%), so the nominal 'winner' label of Burundi is better read as a slight lean than a clear edge, with Algeria only five points behind in the away probability.
- The comparison metrics are internally contradictory: Burundi lead on form (67 vs 33) and attack (73 vs 27), yet Algeria dominate the head-to-head weighting (88 vs 13) and the goals metric (100 vs 0), which is the main tension the double-chance advice has to absorb.
- Defence is the one comparison category that is genuinely level (50 vs 50), and the underlying goal data support a low-scoring framing: Burundi have conceded just once in three matches (0.30 per game) and Algeria once in one match, with no team exceeding 1.5 goals against in any fixture.
- Burundi's form string of WWL is built on two 4-0 wins over Chad plus a 0-1 loss to Togo, and their last-five record also includes a 0-5 defeat to Morocco, so the strong form and attack scores appear inflated by a weak opponent and should be treated cautiously.
- Algeria's sample is much thinner — a single recorded match, a 3-1 home win over Zambia — while their last five show a 3-3 draw with Austria, a 2-1 win in Jordan and losses to Switzerland and Argentina, indicating they can score but have been volatile against stronger sides.
- The head-to-head record leans heavily to Algeria, including a 4-0 friendly win in Burundi in 2024 and a 1-0 win in 2019, but those are old friendlies with one unplayed fixture, so this historical edge is a real counterweight to the home-leaning form and attack metrics rather than a decisive signal.
- Predicted winner
- Burundi
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Burundi or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Burundi | Algeria |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Attack | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 13.0% | 88.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Total | 50.8% | 49.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Burundi
Recent form: WWL.
Average goals scored: 2.70 per match.
Algeria
Recent form: W.
Average goals scored: 3.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Burundi 0–4 Algeria (09 Jan 2024)
- Algeria —–— Burundi (16 Jun 2021)
- Algeria 1–0 Burundi (11 Jun 2019)