Bremer SV vs Weiche Flensburg Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Weiche Flensburg as the winner, yet its own probabilities place that outcome at only 45%, exactly level with the draw and far above Bremer SV's 10%, so the advice is better read as a slight preference than a firm separation. That hesitation is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Weiche Flensburg dominates form (69 vs 31), attack (65 vs 35), defence (69 vs 31), Poisson (89 vs 11) and head-to-head (75 vs 25), but the goals comparison narrows to 57 versus 43 and the aggregate total to roughly 70.7 versus 29.3, suggesting the edge is real but not overwhelming. The team analysis reinforces this asymmetry: Bremer SV's 10-game record of two wins, two draws and six losses includes no home wins in six attempts and four home matches without scoring, while Weiche Flensburg's seven wins, one draw and two losses feature a seven-match winning streak and a side that has failed to score in none of its ten games. Bremer SV's goal profile is the clearest drag on its chances, with just 0.90 goals scored per game against 1.80 conceded, and a home split of 0.70 scored versus 2.20 conceded that points to a venue where they have been outscored heavily. Weiche Flensburg's 3.00 goals per game and 1.20 conceded tell the opposite story, though the fact that both its home and away defensive averages sit at 1.20 and that it has kept only two clean sheets suggests the defence is solid rather than airtight. The last-five records add a qualification the season-long numbers obscure: Weiche Flensburg has lost its two most recent matches 1-2 to Phönix Lübeck and Schöningen after a run of three straight wins, while Bremer SV's sequence of losses to VfB Lübeck and VfB Oldenburg, a win at Todesfelde, a home loss to Kickers Emden and a draw with Schöningen shows a team capable of the occasional result but not of sustained form. The head-to-head record is the most awkward evidence for the prediction, since the last two meetings were both draws (0-0 and 2-2) and four of the eight listed encounters ended level, with Bremer SV also winning 4-0 at home in 2022 and 4-2 at Weiche Flensburg's ground in 2024, which helps explain why the draw carries the same 45% as the away win. The goal-timing data offers a further caution rather than a contradiction, as Weiche Flensburg scores most of its goals after the break (30% in the 46-60 window) while Bremer SV concedes 33% of its goals in the 76-90 window, a pattern that could favour the visitors late but also implies Bremer SV often stays in games until the closing stages. Overall, the weight of form, attack, defence, Poisson and head-to-head evidence supports the existing Weiche Flensburg advice, but the recent two-match losing run, the modest 45% probability, the narrow goals comparison and a head-to-head history rich in draws mean the prediction should be treated as a lean rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Weiche Flensburg

Betting advice

Winner : Weiche Flensburg

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Weiche Flensburg 0–0 Bremer SV (11 Apr 2026)
2. Bremer SV 2–2 Weiche Flensburg (01 Oct 2025)
3. Weiche Flensburg 3–2 Bremer SV (21 Apr 2025)
4. Bremer SV 2–4 Weiche Flensburg (11 Aug 2024)
5. Weiche Flensburg 4–4 Bremer SV (08 May 2024)