Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Concarneau Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Concarneau a win-or-draw recommendation with a 50% draw and 50% away probability, while assigning Bourg-en-bresse 01 a 0% chance, and pairs that with a combo advice of draw or Concarneau plus under 3.5 goals. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Concarneau leads on form (92 vs 8), attack (89 vs 11), defence (73 vs 27), Poisson (80 vs 20), head-to-head (71 vs 29), goals (64 vs 36) and total (78.2 vs 21.8), so the evidence is unusually one-directional rather than marginal. The team analysis reinforces this: Bourg-en-bresse 01 have one win, one draw and five defeats in seven, with a five-match losing streak and no clean sheets, while Concarneau have three wins, three draws and one defeat, including three clean sheets and no away losses. Bourg-en-bresse 01's goals profile is especially weak, averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded, failing to score in five of seven matches and never exceeding 3.5 goals in any game, which supports the under 3.5 component of the advice. Concarneau's numbers are less explosive than their comparison scores imply, averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded, with all seven matches staying under 2.5 goals, so the attacking gap is real but modest in absolute terms. The last-five records sharpen the contrast: Bourg-en-bresse 01 have one draw and four defeats, scoring once across those five games, whereas Concarneau have three wins and two draws, scoring eight and conceding three. The head-to-head record is more mixed than the 71 vs 29 split suggests, since Concarneau won the two most recent meetings but Bourg-en-bresse 01 won three of the ten listed encounters and three ended level, including a 0-0 at this venue in April 2025. Taken together, the form, defensive and goals evidence supports the draw-or-Concarneau side of the advice, while the low-scoring history and Concarneau's own modest goal output make the under 3.5 goals element look coherent rather than contradictory. The main qualification is that the probabilities are presented as a stark 50-50 split with no home chance at all, which overstates certainty given that Bourg-en-bresse 01 have drawn at home in this fixture before and that Concarneau's away wins have been by single-goal margins.

Predicted winner

Concarneau

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Concarneau and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Concarneau 0–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (30 Jan 2026)
2. Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–2 Concarneau (22 Aug 2025)
3. Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–0 Concarneau (18 Apr 2025)
4. Concarneau 2–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (06 Dec 2024)
5. Concarneau 3–2 Bourg-en-bresse 01 (19 May 2023)