Botafogo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction
· Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : draw or Vasco DA Gama
Match prediction
- Vasco's stronger recent form and attack ratings explain why the model gives them a 45% win probability, equal to the draw.
- Botafogo's modest 10% win probability reflects poor form and attack metrics despite home advantage at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
- The draw-or-Vasco double chance is supported by both outcomes sharing 45% probability, leaving Botafogo only a slim path to victory.
- Head-to-head results are evenly split, so they neither strongly reinforce nor undermine the away-leaning advice.
- Vasco's away scoring average of 1.00 goals per game tempers confidence in an outright away win, justifying the draw cover.
- Both teams concede most goals late, suggesting late drama could affect the result but not the model's existing probabilities.
- Predicted winner
- Vasco DA Gama
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Vasco DA Gama
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Botafogo | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Attack | 27.0% | 73.0% |
| Defence | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Poisson | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Total | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Botafogo
Recent form: WLLLLWLWWDWDLDWDLWDWDLLLDDWL.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Vasco DA Gama
Recent form: LDLLWDWWDLDWLDWLLLLDDLLWLWW.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Vasco DA Gama 1–2 Botafogo (05 Apr 2026)
- Vasco DA Gama 2–0 Botafogo (08 Feb 2026)
- Botafogo 3–0 Vasco DA Gama (05 Nov 2025)
- Botafogo 1–1 Vasco DA Gama (12 Sep 2025)
- Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Botafogo (28 Aug 2025)