Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova Prediction
· Estadio Santa Cruz
Match prediction
- The model's equal 35% home and draw probabilities justify double chance rather than a single winner, since Vila Nova's stronger form and attack ratings undercut a home-only bet.
- Vila Nova's superior form, attack, defence and Poisson ratings conflict with Botafogo SP's home advantage, which explains why the model avoids backing either side outright.
- Botafogo SP's home scoring average of 1.70 versus 0.60 away shows a pronounced home-away split that supports their inclusion in the double chance.
- Vila Nova's away record of four wins and seven losses, including a 5-0 defeat, tempers their overall form advantage and keeps the draw plausible.
- Head-to-head results split evenly and recent meetings were low-scoring, reinforcing the draw component of the double chance advice.
- Both teams' goal totals rarely exceed 2.5, suggesting a tight, low-scoring contest consistent with the cautious double chance recommendation.
- Predicted winner
- Botafogo SP
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Botafogo SP or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Botafogo SP | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Attack | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Defence | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Poisson | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 46.2% | 53.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Botafogo SP
Recent form: WWLLDDDLLLDLWWLWDDWLWWDLLLLLDW.
Average goals scored: 1.10 per match.
Vila Nova
Recent form: DDWWWDDLWWWWLWLWLLWLLWWDWLWDWW.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Vila Nova 1–0 Botafogo SP (09 Jun 2026)
- Botafogo SP 2–0 Vila Nova (26 Aug 2025)
- Vila Nova 2–0 Botafogo SP (20 Apr 2025)
- Vila Nova 1–1 Botafogo SP (28 Sep 2024)
- Botafogo SP 1–0 Vila Nova (16 Jun 2024)