Borussia Dortmund II vs FC Bocholt Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or an FC Bocholt win, assigning 45% to each of those outcomes and only 10% to a Borussia Dortmund II victory, so the advice is essentially a double chance against the home side. That caution is supported by the head-to-head record, where Bocholt have 80% of the comparison weight against Dortmund's 20%, having won 2-1 at this venue in November 2025 and drawn 1-1 at home in April 2026. However, the form comparison points the other way, with Dortmund II rated 58 to Bocholt's 42, reflecting a nine-match run of five wins and four draws without defeat compared with Bocholt's three wins, four draws and two losses. The defensive metrics sharpen this tension: Dortmund's defence score of 64 far outstrips Bocholt's 36, and Dortmund have conceded only 0.90 goals per game overall, including 0.60 away from home, while Bocholt ship 2.00 per game and 2.60 at home. Bocholt's attacking output is the counterweight, with 2.10 goals per game and 19 in total against Dortmund's 1.80 and 16, and their attack comparison of 53 versus 47 suggests they can trouble a Dortmund side that has kept only two clean sheets. The Poisson comparison is nearly level at 53 to 47 in Dortmund's favour, which helps explain why the probabilities stop short of backing Bocholt outright and instead hedge with the draw. Recent last-five results add nuance: Dortmund have three wins and two draws, including a 3-1 win over Schalke 04 II and a 0-0 at Borussia Mönchengladbach II, while Bocholt have two wins, two draws and a 1-3 home loss to Sportfreunde Siegen, so Bocholt's away form of two wins and no defeats is more encouraging than their home record. The goals analysis also shows Bocholt scoring heavily in the 31-45 and 46-60 minute windows, whereas Dortmund's concessions cluster between the 46th and 75th minutes, hinting at a second-half vulnerability that could matter. Overall, the head-to-head and Bocholt's away resilience justify the draw-or-away advice, but Dortmund's unbeaten form and superior defence are real qualifications that keep this from being a comfortable call.

Predicted winner

FC Bocholt

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or FC Bocholt

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. FC Bocholt 1–1 Borussia Dortmund II (26 Apr 2026)
2. Borussia Dortmund II 1–2 FC Bocholt (02 Nov 2025)