Bornheim vs SSV Merten Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives SSV Merten a 45% win probability and Bornheim only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or SSV Merten rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Merten leads on form (70 versus 30), attack (63 versus 38), defence (62 versus 38), head-to-head (80 versus 20) and goals (100 versus 0), yet the Poisson metric is the one clear counter-signal, favouring Bornheim 57 to 43. The team analysis helps explain that tension: Bornheim's four-game record of WLLL includes a 4-1 home win but also three defeats, while Merten's LWDW shows two home wins, a draw and one away loss, so Merten's edge is real but not dominant. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, with Merten averaging 2.50 goals per game against 1.30 conceded, compared with Bornheim's 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded, although Merten's attacking output is heavily home-weighted at 4.00 goals per home game versus 1.00 away. Bornheim's last five results show a 4-1 win over TuS BW Königsdorf followed by three straight losses (1-3 to Düren Merzenich, 1-2 at Hennef 05 and 0-2 at Porz), suggesting a side that has recently struggled to sustain results. Merten's last five are stronger but not flawless, featuring a 5-0 home win over Lindenthal-Hohenlind, a 3-1 home win over Hürth, a 2-2 draw at VfL Vichttal and a 0-2 loss at Siegburger SV, which again points to away-day vulnerability. The head-to-head record is small but leans Merten's way, with a 3-0 home win in August 2025 followed by a 0-0 draw in Bornheim in February 2026, so the most recent meeting offers some support for the draw component of the advice. Overall, the evidence broadly backs the double chance because Merten's form, goal output and head-to-head record outweigh Bornheim's Poisson advantage, but the 45% draw probability and Merten's weaker away scoring mean the recommendation should be treated as a cautious lean rather than a confident outcome.

Predicted winner

SSV Merten

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or SSV Merten

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Bornheim 0–0 SSV Merten (22 Feb 2026)
2. SSV Merten 3–0 Bornheim (29 Aug 2025)