Bom Jesus EC vs Morrinhos Prediction
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : Bom Jesus EC or draw
Match prediction
- Bom Jesus EC's unbeaten home record and superior attack metrics support the double-chance advice, though the draw probability equals the home win probability.
- Morrinhos' away form shows four losses in eight, weakening their case despite equal overall form percentages.
- The head-to-head sample is a single match, so Bom Jesus EC's perfect record there should not be over-weighted.
- Both teams' goal totals rarely exceed 2.5, suggesting a tight, low-scoring match consistent with the elevated draw probability.
- Bom Jesus EC's stronger defence and lower goals-against average give them the edge, but Morrinhos' late scoring threat keeps the draw plausible.
- The advice correctly hedges given that both teams draw frequently, with Bom Jesus EC recording seven draws in sixteen matches.
- Predicted winner
- Bom Jesus EC
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Bom Jesus EC or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Bom Jesus EC | Morrinhos |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Attack | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Defence | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Poisson | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| H2h | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Goals | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| Total | 57.2% | 42.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Bom Jesus EC
Recent form: DWWDDWWWLWLDDDDW.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Morrinhos
Recent form: WLWDLWWDLDLWDLWL.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Morrinhos 1–2 Bom Jesus EC (30 Jul 2026)