Bolivia vs Paraguay Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output favours Paraguay but only through a double-chance lens: away win and draw are each rated 45.0%, with Bolivia at just 10.0%, so the advice of 'draw or Paraguay' reflects a near-even split between the two most likely outcomes rather than a clear Paraguay win. That framing matters because the comparison metrics lean more decisively toward Paraguay than the probabilities do, suggesting the model sees value in covering the draw rather than backing Paraguay outright.
• The comparison metrics are broadly one-sided in Paraguay's favour: form (60.0 vs 40.0), attack (60.0 vs 40.0), defence (83.0 vs 17.0), Poisson (79.0 vs 21.0), head-to-head (62.0 vs 38.0) and the aggregate total (65.2 vs 34.8) all point the same way. The only counterweight is goals (53.0 vs 47.0), a near-even split that hints Bolivia's scoring output is not as far behind as the other categories imply, which is consistent with the model's reluctance to separate draw from away win.
• Bolivia's team analysis shows a side that has struggled badly at home: a DLWLL record across five matches, one win, one draw and three defeats, with 4 goals scored and 10 conceded (0.80 for, 2.00 against per game). They failed to score in three of five and conceded in four of five, including 0-4 losses to Algeria and Scotland, so the low 10.0% home win probability looks consistent with a small but uniformly poor sample rather than a single bad result.
• Paraguay's record is shorter and stronger: WLW across three matches, two wins and one loss, 6 goals scored and 2 conceded (2.00 for, 0.70 against per game), with clean sheets in two of three and no failures to score. Their 4-0 home win and 0-1 away win support the high defensive and Poisson ratings, though the three-match sample is small enough that the 83.0 defence and 79.0 Poisson figures should be treated as indicative rather than settled.
• The last-five records add context that partly qualifies the headline numbers: Bolivia's two wins in that run came against Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago, while their three defeats came against stronger opposition, and Paraguay's recent five include a 0-1 loss to France, draws with Germany and Australia, a 1-0 win over Türkiye and a 1-4 loss to the USA. Paraguay's recent scoring is modest (three goals in five), which helps explain why the model caps their win probability at 45.0% and pairs it with an equal draw probability.
• The head-to-head record is genuinely mixed and is the main reason the draw carries equal weight: the last meeting in November 2024 finished 2-2 in Bolivia, and the seven-match series includes a 4-0 Bolivia home win in 2021 alongside Paraguay wins in 2023, 2021 and 2015, plus two other draws. With Bolivia historically competitive at altitude and Paraguay's recent edge reflected in the 62.0 vs 38.0 head-to-head metric, the evidence jointly supports the existing double-chance advice while leaving the outright winner genuinely uncertain.

Predicted winner

Paraguay

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Paraguay

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Bolivia 2–2 Paraguay (19 Nov 2024)
2. Paraguay 1–0 Bolivia (18 Oct 2023)
3. Bolivia 4–0 Paraguay (14 Oct 2021)
4. Paraguay 3–1 Bolivia (15 Jun 2021)
5. Paraguay 2–2 Bolivia (18 Nov 2020)