Blumenau vs Marcílio Dias Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Marcílio Dias a 45% win probability, level with a 45% draw and only 10% for Blumenau, so the advice of an away winner is best read as a marginal lean rather than a clear edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Marcílio Dias dominates form (90 versus 10), attack (88 versus 13) and Poisson (100 versus 0), yet the head-to-head and goals splits sit at 50-50 and the overall total favours the away side only 63.2 to 37. Blumenau's team analysis shows why the home probability is so low: a four-match record of LLDL with no wins, one draw, three defeats, no clean sheets and failure to score in three of four games. Marcílio Dias' WWLW record over the same span is far stronger, with three wins, fourteen goals scored and no blanks, although their defensive numbers are not airtight given eight goals conceded and no clean sheets either. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast, as Blumenau average just 0.50 goals per game while Marcílio Dias average 3.50, and the away side's scoring is spread across almost every fifteen-minute band rather than concentrated in one phase. Blumenau's last five available matches (four listed) produced only two goals in total, a 2-2 draw at Barra plus three 1-0 or 0-1 defeats, which underlines how rarely they find the net. Marcílio Dias' last five show three wins, including 4-2 at home to Hercílio Luz and 5-2 away at Metropolitano, but also two defeats, so their form is productive rather than flawless. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight to the away lean, since both 2026 Serie D meetings finished 1-0 to the away team, giving a 50-50 split that offers no decisive precedent for this Copa Santa Catarina fixture. With the draw probability matching the away win probability and the head-to-head and goals metrics dead level, the evidence supports Marcílio Dias as the more likely winner on form and output, but not with enough separation to treat the outcome as settled.

Predicted winner

Marcílio Dias

Betting advice

Winner : Marcílio Dias

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Blumenau 0–1 Marcílio Dias (16 May 2026)
2. Marcílio Dias 0–1 Blumenau (25 Apr 2026)