Bjelovar vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Bjelovar as the winner, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability, with only 10% for Varteks Varaždin, so the advice is better read as a narrow lean than a confident call. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Bjelovar dominates form (80 vs 20), attack (83 vs 17) and Poisson (86 vs 14), yet the head-to-head and goals splits sit level at 50–50, meaning the model's own inputs disagree about how much the recent record should outweigh the historical balance. The overall total of 67.80 against 32.20 shows the aggregate edge is real but not overwhelming, and the defensive gap is the narrowest of the major metrics at 58 versus 42, which is consistent with a home side that scores freely but does not shut opponents out. Bjelovar's last five (WLWWW, four wins and one loss) include a 4-0 home win over Grobničan Čavle and a 4-1 away win at Križevci, but also two 0-2 home defeats, so their attacking output is high while their home form carries genuine variance. Varteks Varaždin's last five (LLLWL, one win and four losses) show a 2-1 away win at Dugo Selo as the lone bright spot, with a 0-2 home loss to Inter Zaprešić and a 1-4 away loss at Uskok Klis underlining how rarely they have controlled matches. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast: Bjelovar average 3.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across their five games, while Varteks average just 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, and Varteks have failed to score in three of five matches compared with one for Bjelovar. Bjelovar's scoring is also spread late, with 26.67% of their goals in the 76–90 window and 20% in the 31–45 and 91–105 windows, whereas Varteks' three goals came only in the 46–60 and 91–105 bands, suggesting they struggle to generate chances across the full match. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, since Bjelovar won the most recent meeting 2-0 in March 2026 and also 4-1 in March 2022, but Varteks won 4-0 in August 2025 and hold several older wins and draws, which explains why the h2h metric is split evenly rather than favouring the home side. Taken together, the form, attack and Poisson evidence supports the Bjelovar lean, but the level head-to-head and goals splits, Bjelovar's two recent 0-2 home losses, and the unusually high 45% draw probability mean the prediction should be treated as a modest edge rather than a strong expectation.

Predicted winner

Bjelovar

Betting advice

Winner : Bjelovar

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Bjelovar 2–0 Varteks Varaždin (10 Mar 2026)
2. Varteks Varaždin 4–0 Bjelovar (23 Aug 2025)
3. Bjelovar 4–1 Varteks Varaždin (12 Mar 2022)
4. Varteks Varaždin 0–0 Bjelovar (25 Sep 2021)
5. Varteks Varaždin 2–1 Bjelovar (29 May 2021)