Binéfar vs Caspe Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Binéfar win or draw, with a 35% home win and 35% draw against a 30% away win, so the double-chance advice reflects a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Binéfar's strong attack (64) and Poisson score (100) contrast with Caspe's superior form (57 vs 43), defence (78 vs 22), head-to-head (62 vs 38) and overall total (57.6 vs 42.4), leaving the two sides' profiles in tension. Binéfar's three-match form of WLL includes a 4-2 win at Andorra CF but also a 0-4 loss at Terrassa and a 2-3 home defeat to CDJ Tamarite, suggesting a volatile side that scores regularly but concedes heavily. Their goals analysis reinforces this, with 2.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game, no clean sheets in three matches, and a notable concentration of goals against between the 61st and 75th minute (57.14%). Caspe's WLD record is steadier, built on a 3-0 home win over Atlético Monzón and a 1-1 draw with Real Zaragoza II, while their 0-1 loss at Huesca II and a 1-0 away defeat show they can be contained on the road. Caspe's defensive numbers are much tighter at 0.70 goals conceded per game, with one clean sheet, but their attack is limited to 1.30 goals per game and they failed to score in one of three matches, which helps explain why the model does not simply favour them despite the stronger form and defensive metrics. The head-to-head record is the most direct counterweight to the advice, since Caspe have won three of the last ten meetings and Binéfar three, with four draws, and the most recent fixture ended 1-1 in March 2026 after Binéfar won 1-0 in October 2025. Recent form samples are small, with only three league matches per side and last-five records that include older fixtures, so the 35-35-30 probability split and the double-chance advice look like a reasonable hedge rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Binéfar

Betting advice

Double chance : Binéfar or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Caspe 1–1 Binéfar (01 Mar 2026)
2. Binéfar 0–1 Caspe (19 Oct 2025)
3. Caspe 0–0 Binéfar (17 Apr 2025)
4. Binéfar 3–2 Caspe (15 Dec 2024)
5. Caspe 2–1 Binéfar (02 Mar 2024)