Sweden · Division 2 - Södra Götaland
Berga vs Österlen Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, since Berga's win-or-draw coverage reaches 90%.
- Österlen's mere 10% win probability aligns with their weaker away record of three wins in eleven, reinforcing the cautious home-or-draw stance.
- Berga's superior form and Poisson ratings support the home lean, though Österlen's slightly higher attack rating warns against expecting a comfortable win.
- The +1.5 goals advice is well grounded, as both teams' goal distributions show over 1.5 landing in roughly half their matches.
- Head-to-head is genuinely mixed with narrow one-goal margins, so the draw component of the double chance carries real weight.
- Österlen's tendency to concede late, with eleven goals in the 76-90 window, supports goals arriving even if Berga dominates.
- Predicted winner
- Berga
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : Berga or draw and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Berga | Österlen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Attack | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Defence | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Poisson | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| H2h | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Goals | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Total | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Berga
Recent form: LDLWDDWWLWLWLWWWWDLLWWL.
Average goals scored: 2.10 per match.
Österlen
Recent form: LWLLWDLDLWDWWLWWLDLWLDD.
Average goals scored: 1.60 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Österlen 1–2 Berga (09 May 2026)
- Österlen 2–1 Berga (15 Sep 2024)
- Berga 4–1 Österlen (18 May 2024)
- Berga 2–1 Österlen (22 Oct 2023)
- Österlen 2–1 Berga (10 Jun 2023)