Berceo vs San Marcial Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward San Marcial via a draw-or-away double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for a Berceo win, so the advice reflects a clear but not overwhelming preference. That preference is reinforced by the head-to-head record, where San Marcial won 3-2 away at Berceo and drew 1-1 at home, giving an 80-20 h2h edge, and by the total comparison score of 54.80 to 45.20 in San Marcial's favour. However, the comparison metrics are internally contradictory: Berceo lead on form (55 to 45) and dominate attack (83 to 17), while San Marcial hold the defensive edge (75 to 25), which suggests the model is weighting recent defensive solidity and h2h history over Berceo's scoring threat. Berceo's form line of WWL includes a 7-0 home win over River Ebro and a 2-1 away win at Yagüe, but also a 2-1 loss at Cenicero, and their goals analysis shows 10 goals in three games at 3.30 per match with a 7.00 home average, yet all three goals conceded came away from home. San Marcial's WDD form is far more restrained, with just two goals scored in three games at 0.70 per match, no away goals at all, and one failure to score, though they have kept two clean sheets and conceded only once. The last-five records extend this contrast: Berceo's earlier fixtures include a 2-0 home win over Yagüe but also a 2-1 loss at Autol, while San Marcial's include a 0-2 home loss to Anguiano and two goalless draws, underlining how little they create. The Poisson values are both listed as 0.00, so that section offers no usable signal and cannot be used to arbitrate between the attacking and defensive readings. The goals analysis also shows Berceo scoring 40% of their goals in the 76-90 window and San Marcial conceding their only goal in that same late period, a timing pattern that could favour a late Berceo goal even if the overall advice points the other way. Ultimately, the draw-or-San Marcial call rests on San Marcial's unbeaten start, defensive record and h2h advantage, but Berceo's far superior attack and home form mean the 10% home probability looks like the most fragile part of the model's output.

Predicted winner

San Marcial

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or San Marcial

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. San Marcial 1–1 Berceo (08 Feb 2026)
2. Berceo 2–3 San Marcial (28 Sep 2025)