Benin vs Mauritania Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output makes Mauritania the winner at 45.0%, but the draw carries an identical 45.0% and Benin only 10.0%, so the advice rests on a thin separation between the top two outcomes rather than a dominant edge; the comparison metrics reinforce this tension, with Mauritania ahead on form (75.00 vs 25.00) and attack (75.00 vs 25.00) while defence is level at 50.00 each and the head-to-head splits 50.00-50.00.
• The Poisson columns read 0.00 for both sides, which offers no separating signal and effectively leaves the winner call resting on the form, attack and goals indicators; among those, the total comparison actually tilts toward Benin (42.00 vs 58.00 for Mauritania), a counterweight that qualifies rather than confirms the away-side advice.
• Mauritania's single recorded match is the stronger recent result: a 3-1 home win over the Central African Republic, with goals spread across the 31-45, 61-75 and 76-90 windows and a 3.00 goals-for average, while their only concession came in the 46-60 band; Benin's single match was a 1-1 away draw with Burkina Faso, scoring in the 61-75 window and conceding in the 16-30 window, giving a 1.00 goals-for and 1.00 goals-against average.
• Both teams' goal profiles are built on one-match samples, so the 100% penalty conversion each and the clean-sheet totals of zero should be treated as small-sample artefacts rather than durable traits; the under/over splits show Mauritania's match cleared 2.5 goals (3-1) while Benin's stayed under 2.5 (1-1), hinting at different match tempos that the model's 45/45/10 probabilities do not fully resolve.
• The last-five records widen the picture beyond the single analysed fixtures: Benin's run includes a 1-5 loss to Togo alongside draws with Burkina Faso and Niger and 1-0 wins over Guinea and Liberia, a mixed and low-scoring pattern, whereas Mauritania's available three matches show wins over the Central African Republic and Niger plus a draw with Angola, a steadier unbeaten sequence that supports the form and attack gaps.
• The head-to-head record is old and mixed, with Benin winning 3-1 in a 2019 friendly, Mauritania winning 1-0 in 2017 and a 2019 friendly without a recorded score, so the 50.00-50.00 split reflects a genuinely balanced historical sample; combined with the level defence metric and the identical 45.0% win and draw probabilities, this suggests the Mauritania advice is a marginal lean rather than a strongly evidenced conclusion.

Predicted winner

Mauritania

Betting advice

Winner : Mauritania

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Benin 3–1 Mauritania (18 Jun 2019)
2. Benin —–— Mauritania (11 Jun 2019)
3. Mauritania 1–0 Benin (24 Mar 2017)