Beltinci vs Krka Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Beltinci, assigning a 45% home win probability and an identical 45% draw probability while leaving Krka only 10%, and its advice combines a Beltinci win with over 1.5 goals. That split between home and draw is important, because the comparison metrics are not uniformly one-sided: Beltinci lead on form (63 vs 38), attack (62 vs 38), defence (57 vs 43), goals (63 vs 38) and total (61.5 vs 38.8), and the Poisson split is extreme at 86 vs 14, yet the head-to-head metric actually favours Krka 62 to 38. The head-to-head record explains that tension, since the last ten meetings include four draws and several Krka wins, including a 1-0 Krka home win in September 2024 and a 2-0 Krka win in September 2023, while Beltinci's clearest recent statement was a 4-0 home win in September 2025. Beltinci's team profile reinforces the home-side case but also exposes a weakness: they have four home wins from four with no home defeats, a 5-1 biggest home win, and only three home goals conceded, but all four wins came at home while they have zero away wins, two away defeats and a 3-1 away loss. Their last five show the same home-heavy pattern, with a 5-1 win over Tabor Sežana, a 3-2 win over Krško and a 4-0 win over Primorje at home, a 0-0 draw at Dekani, and a 1-3 defeat at Jesenice. Krka's form is much less stable, with two wins, one draw and four defeats overall, and their last five read 1-2 home loss to Dekani, 1-0 away win at Krško, 2-0 home win over Jesenice, 2-3 away loss at Primorje and 2-3 home loss to Slovan Ljubljana. The goals analysis supports the over 1.5 element more than a comfortable home win: Beltinci average 2.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded, with 14 of their 16 goals coming at home, while Krka average only 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded, and Beltinci have gone over 1.5 goals in four of seven matches. Krka's scoring is concentrated in the 31-45 and 61-75 windows, but they have failed to score in two of seven matches and have conceded 45.45% of their goals after the 76th minute, which could matter late. Overall, the evidence supports the model's Beltinci lean and the over 1.5 goals component, but the 45% draw probability and the head-to-head record against Beltinci mean this should be treated as a qualified rather than a confident prediction.

Predicted winner

Beltinci

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Beltinci and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Krka 0–0 Beltinci (20 Mar 2026)
2. Beltinci 4–0 Krka (07 Sep 2025)
3. Beltinci 1–1 Krka (12 Apr 2025)
4. Krka 1–0 Beltinci (29 Sep 2024)
5. Beltinci 0–1 Krka (19 Apr 2024)