Beasain vs Durango Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Beasain win or draw, with home and draw probabilities both at 45% and Durango’s win chance only 10%, so the advice is essentially a protection against the away side. That stance is supported by Beasain’s stronger form score of 67 versus 33 and a defensive comparison of 71 versus 29, while Durango’s attack score of 67 against Beasain’s 33 is the main counterweight. The Poisson split of 100 to 0 is the most extreme signal in the comparison, but it sits alongside a head-to-head score of 38 to 62 in Durango’s favour, which qualifies any assumption that Beasain are clearly superior. Beasain’s three league fixtures produced one win, one draw and one loss, with both clean sheets coming in a 2-0 home win over Santurtzi and a 0-0 draw at Aretxabaleta, while their two away matches yielded no goals and a 2-0 defeat at Touring. Durango are still without a win after three games, drawing 0-0 with Aretxabaleta and 3-3 with San Ignacio at home before losing 2-1 at Santurtzi, so their two draws and one defeat leave them reliant on avoiding loss rather than converting chances. The goals analysis shows Beasain scoring twice and conceding twice in the league, an average of 0.70 at both ends, whereas Durango have scored four and conceded five, averaging 1.30 for and 1.70 against, which points to a more open and defensively vulnerable profile. Beasain’s last five include a 2-0 home win over Santurtzi, a 0-0 draw at Aretxabaleta, a 2-2 draw at Lagun Onak and a 2-3 home loss to Valle Egüés, while Durango’s last five contain a 0-0 draw with Aretxabaleta, a 1-2 loss at Santurtzi, a 3-3 home draw with San Ignacio, a 4-1 home win over Santurtzi and a 0-4 loss at Real Sociedad III, showing both teams can be volatile. The head-to-head record is the clearest conflicting evidence: Durango won 2-0 and 3-0 at home in 2024, Beasain won 4-1 at home in January 2024, and four other meetings were draws, including 1-1 in January 2025, so the historical edge is not one-sided enough to overturn the model’s double-chance advice. Overall, the probabilities, form and defensive metrics jointly justify favouring Beasain or a draw, but the small three-match sample, Durango’s superior attack and goals figures, and the mixed head-to-head results mean the prediction should be treated as a cautious lean rather than a strong conclusion.

Predicted winner

Beasain

Betting advice

Double chance : Beasain or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Beasain 1–1 Durango (19 Jan 2025)
2. Durango 2–0 Beasain (08 Sep 2024)
3. Durango 3–0 Beasain (01 May 2024)
4. Beasain 4–1 Durango (06 Jan 2024)
5. Beasain 1–1 Durango (09 Apr 2022)