Bay FC W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction
· PayPal Park
Match prediction
- The model's existing output is a draw-or-Orlando double chance, with away win and draw both at 45.0% and Bay FC at only 10.0%, so the advice is effectively a hedge against the two most likely outcomes rather than a confident away-win call.
- The comparison metrics broadly reinforce that stance: Orlando lead form (64 vs 36), attack (62 vs 38), goals (78 vs 22) and total (64.2 vs 35.8), while Bay's only edges are defence (56 vs 44) and Poisson (56 vs 44), which suggests the model sees a tighter, lower-scoring contest than the raw attacking gap implies.
- The head-to-head record is the most lopsided input, with Orlando at 93 versus Bay at 7, and it includes Orlando's 3-1 home win in May 2026 plus two 1-0 Orlando victories at PayPal Park in 2024 and 2025; that away-venue success is a concrete reason the model still favours Orlando despite playing on the road.
- Both teams' season records are nearly identical in the loss column (13 each) and clean sheets (7 each), but Orlando's 9 wins to Bay's 7 and Bay's 10 failed-to-score matches versus Orlando's 5 point to Orlando being the more reliable side, even if the gap is not large enough to justify a single-outcome bet.
- Recent form complicates the picture: Bay's last five include a 2-0 home win over Racing Louisville but also three defeats, while Orlando's last five include a 1-4 home loss to Portland and a 1-2 home loss to Utah, so both arrive with defensive vulnerabilities that could support the draw half of the double chance.
- Goals analysis suggests a low-scoring game that could keep Bay within reach: Bay average 1.00 goals for and 1.40 against, Orlando 1.30 for and 1.60 against, and neither side has exceeded 2.5 goals in more than a handful of matches (Bay 2 of 25, Orlando 4 of 25), which is consistent with the model's 45% draw probability and its decision not to commit to an outright Orlando win.
- Predicted winner
- Orlando Pride W
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Orlando Pride W
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Bay FC W | Orlando Pride W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Attack | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Defence | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Poisson | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| H2h | 7.0% | 93.0% |
| Goals | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| Total | 35.8% | 64.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Bay FC W
Recent form: WLWLLWDDLLLDWWLLLDLWLLLDW.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Orlando Pride W
Recent form: LDWDWLLWLLWWLWLLWLLLWLWDL.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Orlando Pride W 3–1 Bay FC W (30 May 2026)
- Orlando Pride W 1–1 Bay FC W (13 Sep 2025)
- Bay FC W 0–1 Orlando Pride W (14 Jun 2025)
- Bay FC W 0–1 Orlando Pride W (21 Sep 2024)
- Orlando Pride W 1–0 Bay FC W (12 May 2024)