Bałtyk Koszalin vs Gedania Gdansk Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Gedania Gdansk a double-chance edge of draw or away at 45% each, leaving Bałtyk Koszalin a slim 10% home win probability, so the advice leans toward the visitors without treating them as clear favourites. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where Gedania lead on attack (67 vs 33), defence (65 vs 35) and Poisson (66 vs 34), yet Bałtyk actually hold the stronger form score (56 vs 44), a genuine tension between recent results and the underlying attacking and defensive ratings. The form strings deepen that conflict: Bałtyk's LDLWDWDLL and Gedania's WDDDLLLDW both show only two wins from nine, so neither side arrives with convincing momentum despite Gedania's superior goal output. Gedania's goals analysis is the most striking evidence for the advice, with 22 goals scored at 2.40 per game against 21 conceded at 2.30, including a 6-1 win over Kotwica Kórnik, but their zero clean sheets across nine matches and 2.30 goals-against average suggest they are unlikely to control this fixture defensively. Bałtyk's numbers point the other way, with just nine goals scored at 1.00 per game and 13 conceded at 1.40, and their failure to score in two matches and only two clean sheets underline a limited attacking threat that makes a home win hard to justify. The last-five records reinforce the split: Bałtyk have one win, two draws and two losses with only five goals scored, while Gedania have one win, one draw and three losses but scored eleven, including the 6-1, showing both volatility and a sharper attacking ceiling. Both teams' goal-timing data also converge on late action, with Bałtyk scoring 44.44% and conceding 46.15% in the 76-90 window, and Gedania scoring 40.91% and conceding 28.57% in the same period, which could make the closing stages decisive. The head-to-head section is empty, so no direct historical record is available to confirm or contradict the model's lean, and the goals comparison fields (goals_home and goals_away at 0.00) offer no additional signal. Overall, the evidence supports the draw-or-Gedania advice mainly through Gedania's attacking and Poisson superiority, but Bałtyk's better form and Gedania's defensive fragility mean the 45% draw probability is doing much of the work, and the outcome remains uncertain.

Predicted winner

Gedania Gdansk

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Gedania Gdansk

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.