France · Ligue 3

Bastia vs Orleans Prediction

· Stade Armand Cesari

Bastia badgeBastia vs Orleans badgeOrleans

Match prediction

  • Bastia's stronger form and attack ratings support the double-chance advice, though the model's equal home and draw probabilities show the win is far from secure.
  • Bastia's away record of three wins and three clean sheets contrasts sharply with zero home wins, undermining any home-advantage assumption behind the advice.
  • Orleans' away form is more resilient than their home form, with both wins and two clean sheets coming on the road, which qualifies the draw risk.
  • The head-to-head record favors Orleans, but those meetings date to 2020 and 2021, so their relevance to current form is limited.
  • Both sides average only 0.80 goals per game, and neither has exceeded 2.5 goals in any match, pointing to a tight, low-scoring contest.
  • Orleans' defensive vulnerability at home, conceding 1.80 per game there, is less concerning away, where they concede only 0.80.
Predicted winner
Bastia
Betting advice
Double chance : Bastia or draw
Home win probability
35%
Draw probability
35%
Away win probability
30%
Goals market
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Prediction comparison

FactorBastiaOrleans
Form78.0%22.0%
Attack75.0%25.0%
Defence62.0%38.0%
Poisson15.0%85.0%
H2h20.0%80.0%
Goals40.0%60.0%
Total48.3%51.7%

Team form and goal analysis

Bastia

Recent form: LWLWLWDL.

Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.

Orleans

Recent form: WLWLDLLD.

Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Orleans 2–1 Bastia (29 Mar 2021)
  2. Bastia 1–1 Orleans (23 Oct 2020)
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