Barquereño vs Bezana Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Bezana as the winner, though its 45% away probability is matched exactly by a 45% draw probability and only 10% is assigned to Barquereño, so the advice is better read as a slight preference than a clear edge. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Bezana dominates form (90 versus 10), attack (80 versus 20), defence (67 versus 33), and Poisson (100 versus 0), yet the head-to-head split of 62 to 38 actually favours Barquereño and the goals comparison is much closer at 59 to 41. The overall totals still tilt to Bezana at 63.20 versus 36.80, but the internal disagreement between the h2h and Poisson columns suggests the model is weighing recent form more heavily than historical matchups. Bezana's team analysis supports that weighting: a three-match form line of WWW with three wins from three, eight goals scored and only three conceded, including a 3-0 away win at Escobedo and a 3-2 home win over Naval Reinosa. Barquereño's corresponding record is DLL with no wins, one draw and two defeats, two goals scored and six conceded, and no clean sheets in three matches, which explains why their form, attack and defence scores sit so low. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, with Bezana averaging 2.70 scored and 1.00 conceded per match against Barquereño's 0.70 scored and 2.00 conceded, and Bezana's away defensive average of 0.00 standing out even in a small sample. Bezana's last five extend beyond the current league run to include a 0-1 home loss to Gimnástica Torrelavega and a 1-1 draw with Guarnizo, so their perfect league start is not an unbroken trend, while Barquereño's last five include a 1-5 home defeat and a 1-1 draw with Revilla alongside their current DLL. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, since Bezana won both 2025 meetings 3-0 and 3-1 but Barquereño won the two 2020 fixtures 4-0 and 4-1 and the 2019 meeting 2-1, with three draws in between, showing that this pairing has historically been volatile rather than consistently one-sided. Taken together, the recent form, goal output and defensive numbers give the Bezana advice a reasonable basis, but the equal draw probability, the h2h edge to Barquereño and the very small three-match samples mean the prediction should be treated as tentative rather than confident.

Predicted winner

Bezana

Betting advice

Winner : Bezana

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Barquereño 0–3 Bezana (28 Mar 2026)
2. Bezana 1–3 Barquereño (15 Nov 2025)
3. Barquereño 1–1 Bezana (16 Feb 2025)
4. Bezana 2–2 Barquereño (06 Oct 2024)
5. Barquereño 4–0 Bezana (28 Feb 2021)