Barbastro vs Utebo Prediction

Match prediction

• The model gives Utebo and the draw identical 45% probabilities, so the double-chance advice reflects near-equal outcomes rather than a clear away edge.
• Barbastro's 10% win probability is the outlier, consistent with a home side that has scored only in one of four league matches.
• Both teams show identical 50% form and attack ratings, so the head-to-head and Poisson splits, not current form, drive Utebo's advantage.
• Utebo's 85% head-to-head and 69% Poisson shares contrast with Barbastro's 15% and 31%, supporting the away-leaning advice.
• Barbastro's away record includes two clean sheets but zero away goals, suggesting a low-scoring home threat that keeps the draw live.
• Utebo has drawn twice and lost once at home, so its inability to convert home advantage justifies covering the draw alongside the away win.

Predicted winner

Utebo

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Utebo

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Barbastro 0–0 Utebo (26 Jan 2025)
2. Utebo 5–2 Barbastro (15 Sep 2024)
3. Utebo 1–0 Barbastro (04 Feb 2024)
4. Barbastro 1–1 Utebo (24 Sep 2023)
5. Utebo 2–1 Barbastro (12 Mar 2022)