Ballymena United vs Portadown Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Ballymena United a 45% home win probability and the draw the same 45%, leaving Portadown just 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Ballymena or draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Ballymena lead clearly on form (75 versus 25), attack (67 versus 33) and defence (57 versus 43), yet the Poisson estimate is nearly level at 49 versus 51 and the head-to-head metric actually favours Portadown 71 to 29. The head-to-head record explains that split, since Portadown won three of the last five meetings and Ballymena only two, including a 2-1 Portadown win at Ballymena Showgrounds in April 2026, so recent history sits awkwardly against the current-season form gap. Ballymena's own profile is mixed rather than dominant: they have one win, three draws and three defeats in seven games, with a 0-3 away win as their best result but no home win and no home clean sheet. Portadown's team analysis is far weaker, showing no wins in eight matches, seven defeats, a six-game losing streak within a run of LLLLLLDL, and four failures to score, which is the main reason the away probability is so low. The goals analysis reinforces that contrast, with Ballymena averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded against Portadown's 0.60 scored and 2.10 conceded, and Portadown have gone under 2.5 goals in all eight of their matches while failing to keep a single clean sheet. Ballymena's last five are also unconvincing in isolation, producing three draws and two defeats, including a 0-2 home loss to Glentoran, so their form edge comes more from Portadown's collapse than from their own winning habit. Portadown's last five contain one draw and four defeats, with the 1-1 home draw against Linfield the only positive result, although their 1-3 loss at Bangor shows they can still score on the road. Overall, the evidence points to Ballymena avoiding defeat as the more defensible outcome, but the level Poisson numbers and Portadown's superior head-to-head record mean the draw carries real weight and the double chance is a hedge rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Ballymena United

Betting advice

Double chance : Ballymena United or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ballymena United 1–2 Portadown (18 Apr 2026)
2. Ballymena United 1–1 Portadown (07 Mar 2026)
3. Portadown 1–0 Ballymena United (13 Dec 2025)
4. Portadown 0–2 Ballymena United (19 Aug 2025)
5. Portadown 2–1 Ballymena United (26 Apr 2025)