Bala Azul vs Alcantarilla Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Bala Azul via a double chance combined with under 3.5 goals, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for Alcantarilla, so the advice is essentially a bet against an away victory rather than a strong vote for a home win. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form and attack are dead level at 50.00 for both sides, while the defence split of 33.00 for Bala Azul against 67.00 for Alcantarilla is the clearest single differentiator in the hosts' favour. The Poisson figures of 100.00 versus 0.00, along with head-to-head and goals splits of 80.00 to 20.00, point the same direction, though the total comparison is far narrower at 58.60 against 41.40, suggesting the overall edge is modest rather than overwhelming. Both teams arrive with identical three-match records of one win and two draws, Bala Azul's sequence reading D-W-D and Alcantarilla's D-D-W, so the form guide offers no separation and the recent samples are too small to be decisive. Bala Azul's defensive profile is supported by two clean sheets in three games and no defeats, with a 1-0 home win over Mazarrón FC and goalless and 2-2 draws away to Águilas II and Olímpico Totana, although their last five also include older defeats to UD Caravaca and Cieza that hint at vulnerability when games open up. Alcantarilla's goals analysis is similarly tidy, with two clean sheets and only one goal conceded across three matches, but that single concession came in the 76-90 window and their away record shows no wins, which slightly undercuts their capacity to break down a resilient host. The goals analysis supports the under 3.5 element of the advice, since neither side has seen a match go over 2.5 goals in this sample and both teams average exactly 1.00 goals scored per game, while Bala Azul's goals against are split evenly between the 46-60 and 76-90 periods. The head-to-head record is the most direct counterweight to the home lean, as the two meetings produced a 1-1 draw at Bala Azul and a 0-3 Alcantarilla win away in October 2024, meaning the visitors have already shown they can win at this venue. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance and low-goal combination through defensive solidity, level form and suppressed scoring, but the 45-45 split between home and draw and the lopsided head-to-head history mean the away side cannot be dismissed as comfortably as the 10% probability implies.

Predicted winner

Bala Azul

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Bala Azul or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Bala Azul 1–1 Alcantarilla (19 Mar 2025)
2. Alcantarilla 0–3 Bala Azul (19 Oct 2024)