World · CONCACAF Nations League
Bahamas vs US Virgin Islands Prediction
Match prediction
- The model's 45% away win and 45% draw reflect a genuinely uncertain match, so the US Virgin Islands win is not a confident standalone pick.
- Bahamas' two defeats include an 8-0 home loss, showing a defence conceding 5.5 goals per game across a tiny sample.
- US Virgin Islands' perfect form and 92 defence rating contrast sharply with Bahamas' 8, supporting the away side's edge.
- The recent head-to-head saw US Virgin Islands beat Bahamas 3-1, but the prior two meetings produced a Bahamas win and a draw.
- Bahamas failed to score in only one of two matches yet conceded in both, suggesting they can contribute to a high-scoring game.
- The +3.5 goals leg is fragile because US Virgin Islands' own matches stayed under 3.5 twice, so the combo carries added risk.
- Predicted winner
- US Virgin Islands
- Betting advice
- Combo Winner : US Virgin Islands and +3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- +3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Bahamas | US Virgin Islands |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Attack | 17.0% | 83.0% |
| Defence | 8.0% | 92.0% |
| Poisson | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 31.3% | 68.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Bahamas
Recent form: LL.
Average goals scored: 0.50 per match.
US Virgin Islands
Recent form: WW.
Average goals scored: 2.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- US Virgin Islands 3–1 Bahamas (29 Sep 2026)
- Bahamas 3–1 US Virgin Islands (13 Oct 2024)
- US Virgin Islands 3–3 Bahamas (04 Sep 2024)