Azuaga vs Jerez Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Azuaga a 50% home probability and a 50% draw probability, with Jerez at 0%, producing the advice “Double chance: Azuaga or draw” and a win-or-draw selection. That advice is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Azuaga leads form 69 to 31, attack 67 to 33, defence 67 to 33, head-to-head 85 to 15, goals 67 to 33, and total 71 to 29, although the Poisson values are both 0.00 and therefore offer no additional separation. Azuaga’s team analysis shows a perfect WWW form across three matches, with three wins from three, no draws or losses, a biggest away win of 1-4, and one clean sheet, while Jerez’s DWL form across three matches includes one win, one draw, and one loss, with both teams having scored in every match and each converting one penalty. The goals analysis reinforces the same directional picture but also exposes a qualification: Azuaga averages 2.70 goals for and 0.70 against, whereas Jerez averages 1.30 for and 1.30 against, yet Azuaga’s goals-for distribution is concentrated in the 16-30 and 76-90 windows at 37.50% each, and Jerez’s goals-against distribution is concentrated in the 76-90 window at 50%. The last-five records add a small-sample caution: Azuaga’s three most recent competitive results are wins over Cabeza Buey, Montijo, and Villafranca, but the two older entries are a 0-0 draw and a 0-1 loss to Moralo, while Jerez’s last five include a 1-2 home loss to Castuera, a 1-0 away win at Cabeza Buey, a 2-2 home draw with Puebla Calzada, a 5-1 home win over Montehermoso, and a 1-2 away loss at Villafranca. The head-to-head record is the strongest single support for the existing advice, since Azuaga has 85 versus Jerez’s 15 in the comparison and the ten meetings include Azuaga wins of 4-1 and 2-0 at home, a 3-0 home win in the promotion play-offs, a 3-2 away win at Jerez, and a 2-2 home draw, alongside several 0-0 draws and a 1-2 away win for Azuaga in the play-offs. Even so, the head-to-head also shows Jerez winning 2-3 at home against Azuaga in March 2026, which is a reminder that the 0% away probability is a model output rather than a guarantee, and the 50-50 home-draw split means the advice is effectively a protection against the away win rather than a strong claim that Azuaga will win outright. Overall, the form, goals, and head-to-head sections align in favour of the Azuaga-or-draw selection, while the Poisson zeros, the short three-match form samples, and Jerez’s recent away win at Cabeza Buey are the main qualifications to that reading.

Predicted winner

Azuaga

Betting advice

Double chance : Azuaga or draw

Home win probability

50%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

0%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Jerez 2–3 Azuaga (22 Mar 2026)
2. Azuaga 3–3 Jerez (09 Nov 2025)
3. Jerez 0–0 Azuaga (16 Mar 2025)
4. Azuaga 4–1 Jerez (03 Nov 2024)
5. Azuaga 2–0 Jerez (11 Feb 2024)