AZ Picerno vs Audace Cerignola Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Audace Cerignola a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for an AZ Picerno victory. That caution toward the home side is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Cerignola leads on form (54 versus 46) and especially on defence (67 versus 33), while Picerno's only clear advantages come in attack (56 versus 44) and the Poisson projection (56 versus 44). The head-to-head, goals, and total metrics are all effectively level at 50-50 or near it (48.5 versus 51.5 overall), which suggests the model sees little separating these teams beyond Cerignola's defensive solidity. Cerignola's team analysis supports that reading: across six matches they have three wins, one draw, and two losses, with three clean sheets and only five goals conceded, including a 4-0 home win and a 2-0 away win. Picerno's record is more volatile, with three wins and three losses, no draws, just one clean sheet, and ten goals conceded, and their last five show a three-match losing run (1-2 at Team Altamura, 2-4 at home to Catania, 0-1 at Sorrento) before an earlier 4-1 home win over Inter U23 and a 1-1 draw at Bari. Cerignola's last five are steadier but not dominant, featuring a 0-0 home draw with Casertana, a 0-1 away loss at Casarano, a 4-0 home win over Giugliano, a 2-0 away win at Foggia, and a 1-3 away loss at Cavese, so their away form carries both clean-sheet wins and a heavy defeat. The goals analysis adds nuance: Picerno average 2.00 goals scored but 1.70 conceded, with a notable 40% of goals against arriving in the 31-45 window, while Cerignola average 1.70 scored and just 0.80 conceded, though their away scoring drops to 1.00 per game and their away defence rises to 1.30 conceded. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the advice, since the last three meetings were all draws (1-1, 2-2, 0-0) and five of the eight listed encounters ended level, with the remaining three split between the sides. Taken together, the evidence supports the draw-or-Cerignola double chance mainly through Cerignola's defensive record and Picerno's recent slump, but the level head-to-head and Picerno's superior attacking and Poisson numbers mean a home win cannot be dismissed, and the small six-match samples make these trends tentative rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Audace Cerignola

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Audace Cerignola

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. AZ Picerno 1–1 Audace Cerignola (03 Jan 2026)
2. Audace Cerignola 2–2 AZ Picerno (25 Aug 2025)
3. AZ Picerno 0–0 Audace Cerignola (09 Mar 2025)
4. Audace Cerignola 2–1 AZ Picerno (26 Oct 2024)
5. AZ Picerno 2–1 Audace Cerignola (07 Apr 2024)