Aywaille vs Stade Mouscronnois Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Stade Mouscronnois, assigning 45% to an away win and 45% to a draw while leaving Aywaille at just 10%, which frames the advised combination of a Mouscronnois win with over 1.5 goals as a plausible but far from certain outcome. That split between draw and away win is notable because the comparison metrics strongly favour the visitors almost everywhere except defence, where Aywaille's 52 rating actually edges Mouscronnois's 48, suggesting the hosts' main resistance may come at the back rather than in attack. The broader form and attacking indicators are far more one-sided, with Mouscronnois at 83 form and 77 attack against Aywaille's 17 and 23, and the Poisson figures mirror that gap at 77 versus 23, so the model's preference is grounded in a consistent statistical pattern rather than a single outlier. Aywaille's team analysis reinforces that weakness, showing a five-match record of LLLD with no wins, four defeats, and a four-game losing streak, including heavy 1-4 home losses to both AS Eupen II and Crossing Schaerbeek. Their goals analysis adds nuance, however, because Aywaille have scored in three of five matches and failed to score only twice, while their defensive numbers are poor at 2.20 goals conceded per game overall and 4.00 at home, which supports the over 1.5 goals element of the advice even if their win probability remains low. Mouscronnois's last five tell a more mixed story than their 83 form rating implies, with a sequence of LDDWL that includes a 3-4 home defeat to La Calamine, a 2-1 home win over Acren-Lessines, and a 4-4 away draw at RUS Binche, showing they can score freely but also concede heavily. Their goals analysis confirms this two-way profile, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per match, with no clean sheets in five games and at least one goal conceded in every match, which makes a comfortable away win less certain than the headline probabilities suggest. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical record between these teams to either support or contradict the model's lean toward Mouscronnois. Taken together, the evidence points to a match where Mouscronnois's superior form and attack make them the more likely winner, but Aywaille's home defensive rating and Mouscronnois's habit of conceding mean the draw probability is unusually high and the advised combination carries real risk.

Predicted winner

Stade Mouscronnois

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Stade Mouscronnois and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.